Everywhere I turn on the Intertubes since the WWDC keynote, people are holding placards high, proclaiming the death of many 3rd-party apps. One of the most notable and most commonly mentioned apps (second only to Instapaper) is Dropbox. However, there a number of flaws with that assumption.
1) Just because you don’t need the Dropbox app on your iPhone, doesn’t mean you won’t use Dropbox.
iCloud has certainly reduced the need for Dropbox to be our one-stop shop for syncing files and there definitely will be fewer developers building Dropbox into their word processors and the like, now that they can build in iCloud instead. But the Dropbox service is still going strong for all the other features it provides, such as: sharing files with friends, family, and coworkers; moving large files from one computer to another by simply dropping it into a folder; keeping Mac and Windows game saves in sync across multiple computers (although, Mac developers will likely start using iCloud for this, as well, if they aren’t already using Steam).
2) The Dropbox app may still be necessary on many iPhones.
I use Dropbox with my phone to access files that don’t really have an app to live in. Usually that’s pictures and videos that I don’t want taking up space on my iPhone, but want access to when out and about. Photo Stream will eliminate some of this need, but not entirely. And, with Dropbox, I can still choose to temporarily keep those files on my iPhone’s internal storage at the tap of an icon.
3) Dropbox still comes in handy for automated tasks.
When I’m away from home and I find a torrent for some sweet video game soundtrack remix album that I want to download before I forget about it, I can download the torrent file in iCab, push it into my Dropbox folder, and my desktop at home automatically opens it and starts downloading. While this is a rather niche usage, I’m sure there are many more interesting ideas in use by people way smarter than me.
4) Dropbox will likely evolve quickly and heavily to stay relevant.
While iCloud is a big deal for Mac and iOS users, Apple didn’t say much about Windows support. I would assume that iCloud on Windows will be virtually identical to MobileMe on Windows. So in that respect, Dropbox still has a large pool of potential clients. But I don’t expect they will sit around waiting to dwindle away as more and more users (particularly those willing to spend money on a service like Dropbox) make the transition to Macs. Instead, Dropbox will likely add new features, focusing on ways it can help when using desktops and laptops. And if they can find a way to stay relevant in the mobile space (particularly iOS, as the true effect of iCloud on Android will be an indirect one when fewer people choose to stick with their Androids in favor of a shiny, new iPhone wrapped up in an iOS 5 package), then they will certainly continue to update their app to keep it on your device.
